•China's official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1% in September, returning to the expansion range

• The People's Bank of China will conduct 1.2 trillion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on October 8.

•The policy of interest-subsidized housing loans for residents has been implemented, and many banks have clarified that it is 'enjoyed without application'

•U.S. President Trump reiterated that the war with Iran will end soon

• With the midterm elections causing 'enormous pressure,' Trump is considering implementing an export ban to lower diesel prices

• U.S. core PCE in August was below expectations, cooling expectations for a Fed rate hike in October

• The U.S. Federal Trade Commission is reported to be intensifying its investigation into AI giants such as Anthropic and OpenAI

• Apple may release a full set of AI smart home products on October 13

•27.832 billion yuan! The top AI chip company in the A-shares is hit with a sky-high equity incentive compensation claim by a departing senior executive

• Benchmarking against NVIDIA CUDA, DeepSeek open-source Ascend computing power platform underlying components

1. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China's manufacturing PMI in September was 50.1%, rebounding 0.3 percentage points month-on-month, marking an increase for two consecutive months and returning to the expansion range; the non-manufacturing and composite PMIs also returned to the expansion range, at 50.2% and 50.7% respectively, both up 1.2 percentage points from August.

2. Six major state-owned banks have successively announced the implementation of the interest subsidy policy for residential home loans. Starting from October 1, they will provide financial interest subsidies for newly issued commercial loans for first-time home purchases that meet the eligibility criteria. Several banks have made it clear that they will adopt a "no-application needed" approach, meaning that each month when interest is collected, the corresponding subsidy amount will be automatically deducted from each installment payment.

3. Cambricon, known as the 'top AI chip company on the A-share market,' announced that it has received a 'Request to Change Lawsuit Claims' delivered by the court. The company's former deputy general manager, Liang Jun, in relation to a labor dispute lawsuit, has changed the amount of equity incentive loss claimed from 4.287 billion yuan to 27.832 billion yuan. Previously, all six cases related to equity incentives involving both parties were concluded with Liang Jun losing, and the repurchase case is currently in the stage of enforced judicial execution. Cambricon stated that this amount is Liang Jun's unilateral claim, the case has been filed but has not yet gone to court, and the company will actively respond to the lawsuit.

4. U.S. President Trump reiterated that the war with Iran will end soon, and significant progress on the Iranian side will be seen shortly. The United States almost completely controls the Strait of Hormuz. A spokesperson for the Iranian government stated that Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi has received a response from the U.S. regarding the 'seven-day plan' to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iran has not yet disclosed further details. According to informed sources, the current disagreement between the two sides is not about the content of the plan itself, but about the sequence of implementing various measures.

5. Regarding the possibility of "implementing a diesel export ban," U.S. President Trump stated that it is under consideration. Earlier reports indicated that, with the midterm elections approaching, Trump was urgently consulting with advisors on whether to ban diesel exports, and White House officials had informed allies, including the United Kingdom, about potential supply disruption risks. U.S. diesel prices have risen to $6.53 per gallon, more than 70% higher than pre-U.S.-Iran war levels. Meanwhile, the Russian government announced that the diesel export ban will be extended until October 31.

6. In August, the U.S. core PCE price index rose 3% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, both below market expectations. However, this data is the first after the adjustment of the statistical methodology and does not fully reflect actual price pressures. U.S. real personal consumption expenditures in August increased 0.6% month-on-month, the largest single-month increase since March 2025. After the data was released, traders reduced their bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike in October, and Goldman Sachs pushed its expectation for a Fed rate hike from October to December.

1. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with the Ministry of Finance, has allocated the fourth batch of 62.5 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special national bonds this year to support the trade-in of consumer goods. With this, the total 250 billion yuan in consumer goods trade-in funds for the year has been fully allocated.

2. The People's Bank of China will conduct 1,200 billion yuan of 3-month term outright reverse repurchase operations on October 8. Considering that there is 1,000 billion yuan maturing for this term in the current month, this 3-month term outright reverse repurchase operation will achieve an increased rollover, with a net injection of 200 billion yuan.

3. The Ministry of Commerce recently issued two announcements, respectively announcing the decision to extend the investigation period on the United States' practices and measures that disrupt the global production and supply chain and the United States' trade barriers related to hindering green product trade. The investigation periods for both cases have been extended to December 27, 2026.

4. The procuratorial organ has filed a public prosecution against Yi Huiman for the suspected bribery case in accordance with the law. The prosecution charges that the defendant Yi Huiman, during his tenure at the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and the China Securities Regulatory Commission, took advantage of his position and the convenience arising from his authority or status to seek benefits for others, illegally accepting property from others in a particularly large amount, and should be held criminally responsible for bribery according to the law.

5. According to monitoring by the National Climate Center, since September, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific have continued to rise, and for the first time since monitoring records began, the sea temperature index at the seasonal and ten-day scale has exceeded 3°C. It is expected that the sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific will continue to fluctuate upward in the future and form the strongest super El Niño event on record around November.

1. On Wednesday, A-shares fluctuated within a narrow range. The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.31% at 3,842.19 points, the ChiNext Index fell 0.23%, the STAR 50 dropped 2.51%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.11%, and the Wind All A-share Index fell 0.06%, with total market turnover reaching 1.45 trillion yuan. In the market, sectors such as banking, insurance, liquor, automobiles, and pharmaceuticals performed strongly, while real estate stocks initially fell then rose; semiconductors and the computing power industry chain all saw sharp declines.

2. Hong Kong stocks opened low and rose high. The Hang Seng Index closed up 0.37% at 24,613.27 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose slightly by 0.1%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 0.5%. Pharmaceutical stocks surged, while media, military, and metal sectors were active. Semiconductor, coal, and home appliance sectors adjusted. Southbound funds had a net purchase of HK$6.864 billion.

3. Renowned E Fund manager Zhang Kun stepped down from 'E Fund Quality Enterprises Three-Year Holding', marking the first time since September 2021 that he has left one of his fund products, intensifying market speculation about his departure. In May and June this year, funds under Zhang Kun's management successively hired co-managers. At that time, rumors of Zhang Kun's departure had already quietly circulated.

1. The General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Developing Sports Events to Stimulate Consumption," proposing to vigorously develop professional leagues for football, basketball, volleyball, table tennis, badminton, ice hockey, baseball, and Go, and to support the hosting of high-level professional events in tennis, sailing, boxing, billiards, automobiles, motorcycles, and cycling.

2. The Cyberspace Administration of China has deployed a special campaign to rectify the chaos of fake personas in short videos, focusing on addressing five prominent issues: impersonating vulnerable groups, fabricating professional qualifications, using AI and other means to imitate people, promoting extravagance and superstition, and fabricating conflict plots.

3. The implementation rules for the reform of commercial housing sales in Guangzhou have been released, clarifying that for presale projects of newly leased land after August 28, the presale threshold is raised to the topping out of the main structure of a single building; the deposit for sales of existing houses cannot exceed 5% of the total house price, and it is also required that loans can only be issued after the completion filing of newly approved presale projects.

4. From now until December 31, Zhejiang Province and Sichuan Province will carry out smart home purchase subsidies for trading in old consumer goods. Individual consumers who purchase 10 types of eligible smart home products can receive a subsidy of 15% of the final transaction price, with a maximum subsidy of 1,500 yuan per item.

1. Robinhood officially launched the AI trading agent Robinhood Agents, offering nearly 30 million retail investors the ability to place orders, formulate strategies, and trade automatically using natural language, and integrating multiple third-party institutional-level data sources. The company also announced plans to launch a series of new products, including 24/7 stock trading, perpetual futures, and profit contracts.

1. The U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is intensifying its comprehensive investigation into AI giants such as Anthropic and OpenAI to reveal the potential risks that their technologies may pose, and plans to issue them formal information requests similar to subpoenas. However, FTC officials emphasized that the investigation does not conflict with maintaining the United States' leadership in the AI field.

2. Google, Anthropic, META, OpenAI, SpaceX, and NVIDIA have signed a self-regulatory agreement on AI safety, committing to strengthen the safety management of cutting-edge AI models. The agreement requires companies to focus on monitoring the capabilities and related risks of models in areas such as cybersecurity, biosecurity, and chemical threats, and to prevent models from intruding into or accessing technical systems in unintended ways.

3. Google announced the launch of the Gemini 4 Argon artificial intelligence model, which has advanced performance in enterprise knowledge work in areas such as coding, cybersecurity defense, law, and finance. This new model is expected to help Google return to the forefront of the AI race. Currently, the model is only open for testing to specific partners, and Google has not announced a public release date.

4. Synopsys and OpenAI have signed a multi-year legally binding agreement to jointly develop GPT-Synopsys, a specialized semiconductor design model that combines OpenAI's cutting-edge AI technology with Synopsys' electronic design automation (EDA) tools.

5. Well-known tech leaker Mark Gurman posted that Apple will release a series of new products on October 13, officially entering the AI era smart home market. The core of Apple's smart home products is a smart home hub codenamed J490, and at the same time, the new HomePod mini and Apple TV box will also make their debut.

6. DeepSeek has officially open-sourced infrastructure components for Huawei's Ascend computing platform, covering the TileLang high-level language compilation tools, computing library, and distributed communication library, with all components corresponding one-to-one with the previously open-sourced components for the NVIDIA platform. The core of this open source release is the Ascend version of TileLang, aiming to serve as a 'toolbox' comparable to NVIDIA's CUDA language.

7. Dongfang Selection's live streaming room issued a statement regarding the internet-famous "wiggle stool," stating that for all users who purchased this product in the Dongfang Selection live streaming room, a full refund without returning the product will be provided, and the refund amount will be twice the price of the goods.

1. Since the Iraq War in 2003, the U.S. military has long been stationed in Iraq under the pretext of participating in post-war reconstruction and eliminating the extremist group Islamic State (IS). The withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq was completed on September 30. U.S. President Trump posted that the last batch of American troops is leaving Iraq and that the Islamic State has been defeated.

2. U.S. President Trump stated that Powell should resign from his position as a Federal Reserve Board member, and if Powell does not resign, the government should sue him. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's internal oversight body issued a report stating that after reviewing the $2.4 billion renovation project at the Federal Reserve's headquarters in Washington, no evidence of criminal activity was found. This project controversy had previously been the core of Trump's pressure on Powell and had sparked intense discussions about the independence of the Federal Reserve.

3. The number of private sector jobs in the U.S. increased by 90,000 in September, marking the largest rise in three months and exceeding market expectations, while August data was revised down to 36,000. In addition, the U.S. MBA 30-year mortgage rate rose by 18 basis points to 7.3% last week, climbing for the sixth consecutive week and reaching the highest level since November 2023.

4. The U.S. Department of Commerce released final data showing that U.S. real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.2% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, significantly revised up from the initial 1.5%, and also higher than the market expectation of 1.5%. Consumer spending annualized growth jumped from 0.7% in the first quarter to 3.8%.

5. In August, the U.S. goods trade deficit widened by 11.5% month-on-month to $132.6 billion, marking the largest single-month deficit since early 2025, far exceeding the market expectation of $115 billion. Total goods imports rose to $336.1 billion, an increase of 5.5% month-on-month, with imports of industrial supplies surging 16.6%, becoming the main driver of the expanded deficit.

6. Driven by rising energy prices, the four major economies in the eurozone all experienced higher-than-expected inflation in September. Italy's CPI rose 4.1% year-on-year in September, the highest since 2023; France's CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year, the fastest in more than two years; Spain's CPI rose 5%, and Germany's increased by 3.3%, both showing a significant acceleration compared with the previous value.

7. For the first time in a decade since Brexit, a reversal signal has appeared. UK Prime Minister Burnham stated that he may launch a campaign in the next general election to return the UK to the European Union. He will discuss three options at the UK-EU summit later this year: rejoining the EU; rejoining the EU single market; joining the customs union.

8. The Bank of England warned in its Financial Stability Report that valuations in the field of artificial intelligence still face a "more severe adjustment" than in July, and such a correction could have broad impacts on global economic growth and sovereign bond yields. The report stated that interconnected vulnerabilities in the financial system are rising, and the likelihood of multiple risks materializing simultaneously is increasing.

9. Affected by the ongoing fuel crisis, French President Macron's approval rating has dropped sharply, falling to a historic low of only 18%. Polls show that if the French presidential election were held now, Marine Le Pen would lead in the first round of voting and would also have higher support than her opponents in various second-round scenarios.

10. South Korea's Ministry of Strategy and Finance expects that in 2026, South Korea's tax revenue will reach a record 478.6 trillion won (approximately 353 billion US dollars), an increase of 28% year-on-year, as income from chip profits, special dividends, and stock trading exceeds expectations.

1. The three major U.S. stock indexes closed mixed, with the Dow down 0.86% at 50,906.05 points, the S&P 500 down 0.25% at 7,651.54 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.24% at 26,861.06 points. Walmart and Merck fell more than 2%, leading the Dow lower. The Wind U.S. Technology Seven Giants Index rose 0.63%, with Apple and Amazon up more than 1%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose 0.6%, with BOSS Zhipin up more than 4%. In September, the Dow fell 4.29% overall, the S&P 500 fell 0.45%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.86%. In the third quarter, the Dow fell 2.7%, the S&P 500 rose 2.03%, and the Nasdaq rose 2.47%. Among individual stocks, Microsoft surged over 37%, Apple rose over 15%, Nvidia rose more than 14%, and Tesla fell over 15%.

2. All three major European stock indices closed lower, with Germany's DAX index down 0.79% at 25,199.19 points, France's CAC 40 index down 0.89% at 7,964.51 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 index down 0.29% at 10,606 points. In September, Germany's DAX index fell 4.03%, France's CAC 40 index fell 4.44%, and the UK's FTSE 100 index fell 2.02%.

3. Major Asia-Pacific stock indices closed with mixed results. The Nikkei 225 rose 1.94% to 66,753.72 points; SoftBank Group increased by 6.55%. The Korea Composite Index fell 0.48% to 6,838.04 points, accumulating a 19.33% decline in the third quarter this year, ranking at the bottom among major global indices. The Indian SENSEX 30 closed down 0.07% at 72,480.29 points.

4. Micron Technology's revenue for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026 was $54.229 billion, a year-on-year increase of 379% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 31%, exceeding the market expectation of $51.49 billion. The company expects revenue for the first quarter of fiscal 2027 to reach $61.5 billion, with a fluctuation of $1.5 billion, while the market expectation is $57.02 billion; non-GAAP adjusted earnings per share are expected to be $38.15, with a fluctuation of $1, compared to the market expectation of $35.40.

1. The China interbank bond market experienced significant adjustments, with yields on major interest rate bonds rising, mostly by more than 1 basis point. The main contracts of Treasury futures generally declined, with the 30-year main contract falling by 0.58%. The central bank conducted zero 7-day reverse repo operations, while carrying out 833.5 billion yuan in overnight reverse repos, resulting in a net daily injection of 127 billion yuan, keeping the interbank market liquidity generally stable.

2. The phased fee reduction arrangement for bond services issued by the Shanghai Clearing House will continue from October 1, 2026, to December 31, 2028, waiving the issuance registration fees for all bonds, collecting half the interest payment and redemption service fees, and further waiving the interest payment and redemption service fees for Panda Bonds. A 10% discount will be applied to the settlement and transfer fees for existing bonds.

3. U.S. Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 2-year Treasury yield up 1.68 basis points to 4.889%, the 3-year Treasury yield up 2.66 basis points to 4.995%, the 5-year Treasury yield up 4.3 basis points to 5.088%, the 10-year Treasury yield up 5.5 basis points to 5.287%, and the 30-year Treasury yield up 6.16 basis points to 5.629%.

1. The main contract of U.S. crude oil rose 1.07%, closing at $90.34 per barrel, up 9.82% for the month and 38.08% for the third quarter; the main contract of Brent crude oil rose 1.79%, closing at $97.88 per barrel, up 13.21% for the month and 49.63% for the third quarter. OPEC+ will maintain the current crude oil production quotas without increasing output, while the transportation of refined oil products is still restricted. The limited global supply of refined oil products supports the rise in oil prices.

2. International precious metals futures closed mixed. COMEX gold futures rose 0.22% to $4,189.10 per ounce, down 6.52% for the month and up 2.21% for the third quarter; COMEX silver futures fell 0.65% to $60.76 per ounce, down 9.31% for the month and up 0.17% for the third quarter. The current uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's policy path brings unpredictability, geopolitical conflicts provide safe-haven support, while high real interest rates suppress long positions, leading to a divergent trend in the market amid the tug-of-war between bulls and bears.

3. Most base metals in London declined. LME tin futures rose 0.14% to $54,275.0 per ton, up 5.25% in the third quarter; LME copper futures fell 0.23% to $14,405.0 per ton, up 7.7% in the third quarter; LME nickel futures fell 0.24% to $15,920.0 per ton, down 2.25% in the third quarter; LME aluminum futures fell 1.37% to $3,170.0 per ton, up 2.74% in the third quarter; LME lead futures fell 1.40% to $1,871.5 per ton, down 0.19% in the third quarter; LME zinc futures fell 1.41% to $3,815.5 per ton, up 7.43% in the third quarter.

4. The Bank of Korea will purchase about 1 ton of domestically produced gold in December, worth 200 billion won, with the first transaction taking place on December 14. This is the bank's first physical gold purchase in 13 years. As of the end of August, the bank held 104.4 tons of physical gold, valued at 14.88 billion US dollars, accounting for 3.4% of its foreign exchange reserves.

1. On Wednesday, the onshore RMB against the US dollar closed at 16:30 at 6.7053, down 16 basis points from the previous trading day, with a cumulative increase of 78 basis points over three trading days this week, and the night session closed at 6.7050. The RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was reported at 6.7351, up 60 basis points, with a cumulative increase of 138 basis points for the week.

2. In the New York closing session, the US dollar index rose 0.09% to 101.47, up 2.07% in September, marking the best monthly performance since March; it rose 0.28% in the third quarter. Most non-US currencies fell, with the euro down 0.12% against the dollar to 1.1330, the pound up 0.24% against the dollar to 1.3263, the Australian dollar down 0.61% against the dollar to 0.6944, the dollar up 0.08% against the yen to 157.4130, the dollar up 0.33% against the Canadian dollar to 1.4233, the dollar up 0.24% against the Swiss franc to 0.8358, and the offshore renminbi down 8 basis points against the dollar to 6.7088.

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