標普上調越南2026年增長預測至8%S&P raises Vietnam's 2026 growth forecast to 8%
標普全球評級把越南2026年經濟增長預測上調至8%，較上次調高1.3個百分點，理由是出口、製造業及內需表現強勁。越南上半年國內生產總值增長8.18%，其中工業及建築升9.8%、服務業升8.1%、商品及服務出口升20.2%。渣打維持全年9.5%預測，另一間銀行則上調至8.5%。報告提醒能源價格高企及美國收緊貨幣政策仍是風險。S&P Global Ratings has raised Vietnam's economic growth forecast for 2026 to 8%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous forecast, citing strong performance in exports, manufacturing, and domestic demand. Vietnam's GDP grew by 8.18% in the first half of the year, with industry and construction up 9.8%, services up 8.1%, and exports of goods and services up 20.2%. Standard Chartered maintains its full-year forecast at 9.5%, while another bank has raised it to 8.5%. The report warns that high energy prices and the U.S. tightening monetary policy remain risks.
S&P Global Ratings has raised its 2026 growth forecast for Việt Nam to 8 per cent, adding to a series of upgrades by international financial institutions amid strong exports and resilient domestic demand.
HÀ NỘI — S&P Global Ratings has raised its forecast for Việt Nam’s economic growth in 2026 to 8 per cent, 1.3 percentage points higher than its previous projection, adding to a series of upgrades by international financial institutions as strong exports, manufacturing and domestic demand support the economy.
The latest forecast comes after Việt Nam recorded a 8.18 per cent GDP growth in the first half of 2026. The stronger-than-expected growth was supported by industry and construction up 9.8 per cent, services up 8.1 per cent, final consumption up 8.2 per cent and exports of goods and services up 20.2 per cent.
Other international institutions have also become more positive about Việt Nam’s outlook.
Standard Chartered maintains its 9.5 per cent growth forecast for 2026, while UOB has raised its projection to 8.5 per cent. The Asian Development Bank (ADB), in its September outlook, upgraded its forecast to 7.8 per cent, from 7.2 per cent previously, and raised its 2027 forecast to 7.6 per cent.
Stronger regional backdrop
The improved outlook for Việt Nam comes against a broadly resilient Asia-Pacific economy, where exports and domestic demand are helping offset geopolitical and energy-related risks.
S&P has raised its forecast for Asia-Pacific GDP growth to 4.6 per cent in 2026, up 0.2 percentage points from its previous projection, and expects growth of 4.4 per cent in 2027. It said the region had maintained economic momentum in the first half of the year, despite a moderation in quarter-on-quarter growth in the second quarter.
A major source of strength is the global investment boom in artificial intelligence, which has boosted demand for technology products and benefited Asian exporters integrated into global supply chains.
ADB similarly expects developing Asia and the Pacific to grow 5 per cent in 2026, with private investment, government stimulus and strong technology exports driven by the global AI investment cycle helping offset higher trade and energy costs. Growth in developing Southeast Asia has been upgraded to 4.7 per cent, with Việt Nam recording the largest upgrade in the subregion.
The regional picture, however, remains uneven. S&P forecasts India to grow 7 per cent in its current fiscal year, while China is expected to expand 4.3 per cent in both 2026 and 2027.
Risks remain
The stronger growth outlook does not eliminate external risks. S&P said higher energy prices, tighter US monetary policy and a possible slowdown in AI-related investment could affect the region.
Much of the initial AI investment has been concentrated among a relatively small group of US hyperscalers, creating a potential vulnerability if their investment plans change. However, the growing share of AI-related exports from Taiwan (China) and South Korea going to destinations outside the US suggests the investment cycle may be broadening.
Inflation is another factor to watch. S&P forecasts Việt Nam’s average CPI inflation at 4.7 per cent in 2026, before easing to 3.6 per cent in 2027. ADB’s latest forecast is somewhat lower at 4.3 per cent for 2026.
S&P said inflation across Asia-Pacific had risen because of higher energy prices but remained generally manageable. In Việt Nam, inflation remained within the target range but was moving higher amid energy and food price pressures.
Data of the National Statistics Office under the Ministry of Financed showed CPI rose 4.45 per cent on average in the first eight months of 2026, while core inflation increased 4.24 per cent. August CPI rose 4.89 per cent year-on-year.
ADB has also highlighted the need to manage inflation and financial stability as rapid growth increases pressure on domestic credit. It said maintaining macroeconomic stability, improving public investment efficiency, deepening capital markets and strengthening productivity would be important to sustain high-quality growth.
The convergence of forecasts from S&P, Standard Chartered, UOB and ADB points to stronger international confidence in Việt Nam’s near-term growth momentum, while also highlighting the need to ensure that rapid expansion is supported by sufficient investment capacity, financial stability and productivity gains. — VNS
S&P Global Ratings has raised its 2026 growth forecast for Vietnam to 8 percent, adding to a series of upgrades by international financial institutions amid strong exports and resilient domestic demand.
HÀ NỘI — S&P Global Ratings has raised its forecast for Vietnam’s economic growth in 2026 to 8 percent, 1.3 percentage points higher than its previous projection, adding to a series of upgrades by international financial institutions as strong exports, manufacturing, and domestic demand support the economy.
The latest forecast comes after Vietnam recorded an 8.18 percent GDP growth in the first half of 2026. The stronger-than-expected growth was supported by industry and construction rising 9.8 percent, services rising 8.1 percent, final consumption rising 8.2 percent, and exports of goods and services rising 20.2 percent.
Other international institutions have also become more positive about Vietnam's outlook.
Standard Chartered maintains its 9.5 percent growth forecast for 2026, while UOB has raised its projection to 8.5 percent. The Asian Development Bank (ADB), in its September outlook, upgraded its forecast to 7.8 percent from 7.2 percent previously, and raised its 2027 forecast to 7.6 percent.
Stronger regional backdrop
The improved outlook for Vietnam comes against a broadly resilient Asia-Pacific economy, where exports and domestic demand are helping offset geopolitical and energy-related risks.
S&P has raised its forecast for Asia-Pacific GDP growth to 4.6 percent in 2026, up 0.2 percentage points from its previous projection, and expects growth of 4.4 percent in 2027. It said the region maintained economic momentum in the first half of the year, despite a slowdown in quarter-on-quarter growth in the second quarter.
A major source of strength is the global investment boom in artificial intelligence, which has boosted demand for technology products and benefited Asian exporters integrated into global supply chains.
ADB similarly expects developing Asia and the Pacific to grow 5 percent in 2026, with private investment, government stimulus, and strong technology exports driven by the global AI investment cycle helping offset higher trade and energy costs. Growth in developing Southeast Asia has been upgraded to 4.7 percent, with Vietnam recording the largest upgrade in the subregion.
However, the regional outlook remains uneven. S&P forecasts India to grow 7 percent in its current fiscal year, while China is expected to expand 4.3 percent in both 2026 and 2027.
Risks remain
The stronger growth outlook does not eliminate external risks. S&P said higher energy prices, tighter US monetary policy, and a possible slowdown in AI-related investment could affect the region.
Much of the initial AI investment has been concentrated among a relatively small group of US hyperscalers, creating a potential vulnerability if their investment plans change. However, the growing share of AI-related exports from Taiwan (China) and South Korea going to destinations outside the US suggests the investment cycle may be broadening.
Inflation is another factor to watch. S&P forecasts Vietnam’s average CPI inflation at 4.7 percent in 2026, before easing to 3.6 percent in 2027. ADB’s latest forecast is somewhat lower at 4.3 percent for 2026.
S&P said inflation across Asia-Pacific had risen due to higher energy prices but remained generally manageable. In Vietnam, inflation stayed within the target range but was trending higher amid pressures from energy and food prices.
Data from the National Statistics Office under the Ministry of Finance showed that the CPI rose by an average of 4.45 percent in the first eight months of 2026, while core inflation increased by 4.24 percent. The CPI in August rose 4.89 percent year-on-year.
ADB也强调了在快速增长增加国内信贷压力的情况下管理通货膨胀和金融稳定的必要性。它表示，保持宏观经济稳定、提高公共投资效率、深化资本市场和增强生产力对于维持高质量增长将非常重要。
The convergence of forecasts from S&P, Standard Chartered, UOB, and ADB indicates stronger international confidence in Vietnam's near-term growth momentum, while also emphasizing the need to ensure that rapid expansion is backed by adequate investment capacity, financial stability, and productivity improvements. — VNS
原文出處：Source: Vietnam News / BizHub（越南 ↗